Spring Training thoughts

[george w]

Have not posted for awhile but with spring training less than 2 weeks away, I decided to jot down a spring training analysis, which you are all invited to comment on:
Pitchers (26) Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Penny, Garcia, Franklin, Motte, Hawksworth, Kinney, Boggs, TMiller, Reyes, RHill, McClellan, Walters, Jukich, Zink, Maclane, Perez, Parise, Samuel, Salas, Sanchez, Ottavino, Norrick, Lynn
Catchers (8) Molina, Larue, Pagnozzi, Anderson, Hill, Cutler, Cruz, Stock
1b- Pujols, Mather, Hamilton
2b- Schumacker, Gotay, Descalso
ss- Ryan, Lugo, Kozma
3b- Freese, Greene, Solano
lf- Holliday, Craig, Stavinoha
cf- Rasmus, Robinson, Jones
rf- Ludwick, Jay, Henley
**** It seems likely that one or two more additions may occur between now and opening day, most likely bench players. As things stand now, it would seem that McClellan and Hill will battle with Garcia for the #5 rotation spot. If McClellan does not get the starting spot, he would go to the bullpen and either Boggs, Hawksworth or Kinney would be the odd man out. If Garcia or Hill do not make the rotation, it would seem likely that they would go to Memphis. If there are any darkhorse candidates to make the pitching staff, I would think that Sanchez and Parise could be ready if needed. The catching situation is decided barring injury with Molina and Larue. If we assume that David Freese does not implode at third base, the starting lineup appears set. It seems safe to say that Larue and Lugo will command 2 of the 5 bench spots. The remaining 3 spots (barring additions) would come from Mather, Gotay, Greene, Craig, Jay and Stavinoha. Since Jay is a left handed hitter and Gotay is a switch hitter, they would have an advantage. I hope that the club can sign Felipe Lopez. His versatility would be a real help to the bench. I will look forward to your input.

[cardinalmike]

I haven't posted in a long time, either. I'm definitely ready for ST and spring, in general.

I don't think the Cardinals are done tinkering with the roster but I don't think they are in any hurry, either. I would like to see the Cardinals sign Lopez but I suspect that isn't going to happen. The problems are Boras and contract cost. Hudson got $4M with a million in incentives from the Twins. Kennedy got 1.25M + an option for 2011 at $2M from the Nats. Lopez, I assume, would come in somewehere between those two numbers and closer to Hudson than Kennedy. I just don't see the Cardinals going near that, unfortunately.

The one caveat would be that Lopez would take a two-year deal that pays him Kennedy money in 2010 with a move up in 2011.

As for the roster, Freese will be the 3B unless he implodes in ST. I think that one of Mo's concerns about Lopez is whether Tony would use him at the expense of Freese.

Garcia will head to Memphis to start the season. The real race for the #5 spot is McClellan, Hill, and, maybe, Jukich.

As for the bench, that is where an addition is likely. The Cards need somebody to back up in CF (Baldelli, anyone?) and they could use a LHed hitter for the bench. I don't see Jay making it out of ST and Gotay's future is tied to Lopez. I have always had the impression that Tony likes Mather and if he is healthy, I see him getting one of the bench jobs. However, other additions could change that.

The final issue relative to the bench is whether Tony/Dave will take 12 or 13 pitchers north. If I knew their thinking on that, the whole bench issue and the fate of signing other FAs would be clearer.

[george w]

I hope that Garcia is given a real shot. He has more upside than Rich Hill and the bullpen will be better with McClellan in it.

[jimmcg]

Good to see you both back, george and mike. I hope you wintered well.

Altghough I endorse the Cardinals being conservative with Garcia, I hope he gets a legitimate chance to be the 5th starter, with maybe the long reliever getting a few spot starts to spell him. I have seen Garcia pitch, prior to his surgery. He has the tools to make it. I also agree with George that McClellan will likely help the Cardinals more as a reliever than a starter.

However, it looks like there is seriousness about giving McClellan a shot as a starter.

McClellan, 25, long has intrigued pitching coach Dave Duncan as a potential starter. McClellan worked the role in the Cardinals' minor-league system until sidetracked in 2005 by elbow ligament replacement surgery. He carries a four-pitch assortment, though he rarely employs his change-up out of the bullpen.

He looks forward to a competition that will also feature former Chicago Cubs starter Rich Hill, top lefthanded prospect Jaime Garcia and perhaps others with less experience (Mitch Boggs, Blake Hawksworth) from last season's bullpen.

I would be surprised if the Cardinals will pay Lopez more than they pay Schumaker in 2010. I'd rather have him than Gotay if it can be accomplished. It could yet happen, but I'm not confident it will.